Dry January - dry statistics?

You will no doubt be thrilled to know that I’m going to focus on global wine statistics this week. Resist the urge to turn the page! Come on, it might be enlightening – at the very least you’ll have some gems to lob into a lull in the conversation at your next dinner party. And if you’re doing dry January (and not long to go now) you can be sure I’m not going to torment you by singing the praises of what is still forbidden fruit.

There’s nothing like seeing facts and figures in stark black and white for disabusing you (well me at any rate) of long-held assumptions about what’s really happening in the world of wine. Here’s an example: which country do you think consumes more sparkling wine than any other? I mean total volume of sparkling wine drunk – not per head. Well it’s Germany.

The national stereotype of corpulent men downing pilsner in steins while an oom pah band plays in the background is crumbling to dust in my mind’s eye. Instead the Germans are busy popping corks like nobody’s business, getting through more fizz than Russia and the USA, who have far higher populations than they do – 141 million and 319 million respectively to Germany’s 81 million.

In case you’re interested, the UK is not too shabby in terms of sparkling wine drinking, coming in at number 5 behind Germany, France, Russia and the USA – but with a population of just 64 million, we’re not doing too badly. And the UK retains its position as the number 1 export market for Champagne, which is pretty impressive when you think about it.

Do you imagine that, overall, world wine consumption is growing? It might surprise you to find that it isn’t, but the reason why it isn’t might come as even more of a shock. Global wine consumption over the years 2009-2013 is down slightly, by 0.8% and the driver of the drop is…China.

China, with its huge population, rapid industrial and technological progress and small but burgeoning middle class has been a massive engine of growth in wine consumption in recent years. Chinese economic growth seems set to continue, albeit at lower rates than before, but the government’s anti-corruption initiatives are making extravagance and conspicuous consumption less acceptable. When China moves, it seems, the whole world notices.

The importance of China is an indicator of another global trend – the move from west to east. Europe was traditionally the epicentre of wine production and consumption; more recently the US has become the biggest (and still growing) consumer of wine in the world. But eastern countries like China, India and Russia are beginning to become players. And the fact that the US and China are outside even the top 20 countries in terms of wine consumption shows that these markets still have huge potential for growth.

Moving to more parochial matters, something that may not register at the global level, and it hasn’t made news headlines here, but consumption of wine in the UK has been falling in recent years, down by 7.9% from 2009-2013 in volume terms. This is probably partly due to the economic downturn, and consumption is forecast to grow by 5.5% from 2014-2018 – but the overall trend is still downward.

Consumption of wine per head is following the same trend and is due to fall by 8.1% from 2009 to 2018. In an overall shrinking market, what growth there is here is being driven by sparkling wines – all that Champagne, but now increasingly joined by Cava and flavour of the month (or decade), Prosecco. We are also now drinking (slightly) more white wine than red, and rosé continues to become ever more popular. Without wishing to appear sexist, this would seem to signal the growth in female wine drinkers, who tend to favour lighter, fruitier and lower alcohol styles of wine.

The irresistible rise of Prosecco is also reflected in the upward trend in imports from Italy to the UK. Australia and France are still ahead of Italy in first and second place in terms of total imports, but they are both on a seriously downward trend. Spain, in 5^th place, however, is showing very strong growth from 2009-2013, up over 24% - this must be good news for a struggling economy. Just think, every time you pick up a bottle of Cava, you’re helping Spain’s balance of payments. Salut!

Statistics quoted are taken from research undertaken by IWSR (International Wine and Spirit Research), commissioned by Vinexpo.

Dry January

Here we are again, it’s early January and the idea of giving up the booze for a month seems not just possible, but almost attractive: no hangovers, cutting down your calorie intake and staunching the flow of money from your wallet to the pub or wine merchant; you can see the appeal.

However, as well as being the launchpad of New Year resolutions, January is the longest month of the year. I know, other months also have 31 days, but they just aren’t as long as January – fact.

In recent years the notion of Blue Monday, falling on the Monday of the last full week of January, has taken hold. This is supposedly officially the most depressing day of the year.

By my calculations, this will fall on Monday 26^th January this year - though it might depend whether you count Sunday as the end of the week, in which case Blue Monday will be on 19^th January. It matters not; the whole thing is almost certainly entirely spurious and at best a bit of pseudo-science. But it doesn’t take much imagination to appreciate how the combination of short days, cold weather and a general feeling of, how shall I put it, being skint, will tend to weigh on one and contribute to a general feeling of misery.

Whether on Blue Monday or not, many people who had begun January with the intention of staying off the demon drink will fall off the alcohol-free wagon before the month is out. In case this could be you, would you like some good news?

I don’t think anyone should worry about not managing to lay off the drink for a month. There is no firm medical evidence that an entire month of abstinence is the best way to boost your liver health. Our livers need time to recover from alcoholic (and rich food) over-induglence. But even the most sorely abused livers have done all the recovering they are going to do in 3-5 days. Abstaining for a month is much more about proving to ourselves – and others – that we can do it. Might it also even be just a teensy weensy bit macho?

But the smooth running of the universe hangs on the premise that where there is good news, there is also bad news: dear reader, our livers would appreciate a few alcohol-free days, not just every month, but every week.

I’m not dissing the idea of dry January – and anyone who has signed up to Cancer Research UK’s month-long Dryathlon and will raise money for charity as a result of their temperance is to be congratulated. However, I don’t think those of us who still have a drink or two in January should be made to feel like failures. I’d like to promote the idea of a light, rather than completely dry, January. Perhaps it should be damp January? Or perhaps not.

Non-alcoholic drinks I like:

OK, not the longest list in the world I admit, but here goes:

Lemonade punch

This is refreshing, not too sweet and feels quite healthy

2 pints of strong tea

Juice of 3 lemons

½ cup of sugar

Sprigs of mint

1 pint of ginger ale

Cool the tea and add the lemon juice, sugar and mint. Add the ginger ale just before serving. (Originally published in Vogue Cocktails, published 1982)

Mulled apple juice

It’s comforting to have a warm, and warming, soft drink in the winter months.

1 litre apple juice

Strips of orange peel

1 cinnamon stick

Sugar or honey, to taste

Put the apple juice, orange peel and cinnamon stick in a pan and warm gently for 5-10 minutes. Sweeten, or not, to your taste. (Originally published in Good Food Magazine, 2009)

For those aiming to stay dry this month, cheers and I’ll see you on the other side.